This water management system to help the decision making processes in water sector has been developed by a team headed by AEMET, CETaqua and the DGA making use of the predictability of the winter precipitation in Spain at seasonal scales and new water management and modeling tools.
A probabilistic forecasting statistical model has been implemented to forecast the reservoir inflow. In the first days of November, a probabilistic seasonal forecast of the inflow for the period December-January-February is issued for each reservoir in the project.
This forecast is then ingested by SIMRISK, the water management tool to simulate and analyze different possible scenarios. This tool produces a risk evaluation for each reservoir based on its initial situation, the forecasts and the historical demands.
Finally, the water managers, based on this risk evaluation, can take different actions to mitigate the risks.
With this system a detailed analysis of the past situations has been carried out on the Cuerda del Pozo reservoir and the results show that this methodology could help in the management of the reservoir and the reduction of drought risks.